Recession Over? Not With 21 Percent Unemployment.

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  1

  Ilyce Glink

  10/28/09 | Report as spam

  RE: Recession Over? Not With 21 Percent Unemployment.

  From Dick on Facebook:
  
  "The issue here is semantic. The classic definition of recession was two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. There is a newer definition determined by NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee (NBER = National Bureau of Economic Research) but it also is based on economic activity not unemployment. History shows that job growth trails GDP. So, yes, we may well be soon out of recession with high unemployment. Jobs are created by a coming together of business, labor and capital - the government can influence this but only in a limited sense."

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  2

  Ilyce Glink

  10/28/09 | Report as spam

  RE: Recession Over? Not With 21 Percent Unemployment.

  From Marla on Facebook:
  
  Thanks for posting this. It's time to get real and to have compassion for, rather than pass judgment upon those who are experiencing hardship. We're all responsible for our situations. Yet, there's a larger context to consider. While it's vitally important to be as positive as possible, putting on a false happy face doesn't make it go away and viewing people in a negative light doesn't help anyone.

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  3

  Ilyce Glink

  10/28/09 | Report as spam

  RE: Recession Over? Not With 21 Percent Unemployment.

  From Nicole on Facebook:
  
  Marla,
  I couldn't agree with you more. I have close friends and many, many clients horribly impacted by this economy. Until jobs return, we will continue to be in pain. People can make bold statements about other people's situations but truly until they've walked in their shoes and spent 10 months or longer looking diligently for a job, they have no clue whatsoever. It really astounds me the lack of compassion, caring, empathy that our culture seems to breed.

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  4

  Ilyce Glink

  10/28/09 | Report as spam

  RE: Recession Over? Not With 21 Percent Unemployment.

  From Brian on ActiveRain:
  
  That sure doesn't paint a very pretty picture. I would say there's more to being out of a recession than just what happens on Wall Street. It's too bad that's all that seems to count.

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  5

  Ilyce Glink

  10/28/09 | Report as spam

  RE: Recession Over? Not With 21 Percent Unemployment.

  From Sandra on ActiveRain:
  
  That is a real eye opener to look at it that way. I knew a lot of people were under-employed, or working part time. Not a pretty picture. With all the tax hikes coming our way, it is sure to get even worse.

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  6

  Ilyce Glink

  10/28/09 | Report as spam

  RE: Recession Over? Not With 21 Percent Unemployment.

  From Heath on ActiveRain:
  
  There are so many numbers all over the place. I heard a builder tell the local MLS tour today he'd just sold a house for $850K and $650K in a $450K area. A new Chinese proverb: He who states the numbers has to provide validation.

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  7

  Ilyce Glink

  10/28/09 | Report as spam

  RE: Recession Over? Not With 21 Percent Unemployment.

  Heath:
  
  Please click through the links to see get to the BLS pages.
  
  Thanks for your comment - and the new Chinese proverb.

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  8

  Ilyce Glink

  10/28/09 | Report as spam

  RE: Recession Over? Not With 21 Percent Unemployment.

  From Dennis, on ActiveRain:
  
  Yikes Ilyce...do you have any positive news you can publish?

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  9

  Ilyce Glink

  10/28/09 | Report as spam

  RE: Recession Over? Not With 21 Percent Unemployment.

  @Dennis:
  
  
  Let's see. In real estate, we could talk about the new new construction sales figures - oh, that's not such good news. The average annualized figures are down to 402,000 sales.
  
  Well, we could talk about interest rates - they're still hovering around 5 percent. That's good news. As soon as the government stops buying the paper they'll go up.
  
  Hmmmmm. What else is good news in real estate? Sales are up thanks to the $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit. But, you already knew that.
  
  I'll see if I can think of anything else that's "positive" in real estate right now, but honestly, it's a challenge.
  
  Thanks for the comment.

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  10

  Ilyce Glink

  10/28/09 | Report as spam

  RE: Recession Over? Not With 21 Percent Unemployment.

  From Syreeta on ActiveRain:
  
  I heard a radio program yesterday that went on and on about the fact that the recession was over. I actually remarked to my husband last night that it might be technically over but the effects on the people will be around for some time unfortunately.

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  11

  Ilyce Glink

  10/28/09 | Report as spam

  RE: Recession Over? Not With 21 Percent Unemployment.

  @Syreeta:
  
  You're absolutely right. The difference between the recession being technically over and how it feels to millions of Americans who have been unemployed for a year or more, or who had their pay cut, is very different.
  
  I've talked about the difference between Wall Street and Main Street.
  
  For Wall Street, you'll know the recession is over when companies like GMAC stop asking for BILLIONS OF DOLLARS in aid every quarter.
  
  For Main Street, you'll know the recession is over when the jobless numbers fall and folks are no longer worried about how they're going to make their mortgage payment or feed their kids.
  
  Thanks for the comment.

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  12

  Ilyce Glink

  10/28/09 | Report as spam

  RE: Recession Over? Not With 21 Percent Unemployment.

  From Lori, on ActiveRain:
  
  
  Sadly, Americans are going down farther and farther! We need to bring jobs back to our country and get our people back to work!

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  13

  Ilyce Glink

  10/28/09 | Report as spam

  RE: Recession Over? Not With 21 Percent Unemployment.

  @Lori:
  
  I couldn't agree more. Jobs and real estate are closely tied together. You won't have a good housing market without a good jobs market. And, we may not see a great housing market for another 5 to 10 years.

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  14

  Ilyce Glink

  10/28/09 | Report as spam

  RE: Recession Over? Not With 21 Percent Unemployment.

  From Jeff on ActiveRain:
  
  Unemployment is 10.4% in NC. The highest I can ever remember previously was 7%. Recession over? I don't think so.

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  15

  Ilyce Glink

  10/28/09 | Report as spam

  RE: Recession Over? Not With 21 Percent Unemployment.

  From Marla on Facebook:
  
  "It is semantic. The true definition(s?) of recession is rarely used, and even when it is used correctly, is not understood. It seems that the common usage just means 'bad economy.' I do hope we are coming out soon, and that companies will then start hiring."

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  16

  Ilyce Glink

  10/28/09 | Report as spam

  RE: Recession Over? Not With 21 Percent Unemployment.

  From Joseph, on Facebook:
  
  
  "I am not privileged to articulate whom, due fact the Industry is somewhat Security conscious, but let me say that a large number of individuals are facing Layoff, but don't know it yet.
  
  Further, I am aware of many middle aged Sales individuals that are scrambling for a position (most in Sales), and they are quite Reliable, and very Personable.
  
  Even further, in my own Trade, freight, it is better than 70% off from last year, according to Posts on the Freight Boards, with many LTL Carriers biting the dust, and, the leader of the Industry in Fleet Leasings, Ryder System, Inc. has last week Reported their Profits are down over 65% from last year.
  
  It would be impossible for the others to do better: First Fleet has all but left Atlanta. I haven't even brought up my Brother, or my Sister, whom have Happy Halloween tales of their own, on either side of the Nation."

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  17

  Ilyce Glink

  10/28/09 | Report as spam

  RE: Recession Over? Not With 21 Percent Unemployment.

  From Tom on ActiveRain:
  
  
  It is always refreshing to read a post that is so very true. The unemployment in Wisconsin is also very amazing, and larger than many may think. Thanks for the great read.

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  18

  Fernando56

  10/28/09 | Report as spam

  RE: Recession Over? Not With 21 Percent Unemployment.

  All depends who manage the statistics and which method am I using to refuse what the reality tells me. Historically. It is like, state that the discount rate is a leader and not a follower of market interest rates. The reason is that under no interference from monetary authorities, The Federal Reserve System should seek to discouraging banks from using the discount window, by setting the discount rate at level in line or a little bit higher than the alternative of treasury bill and Federal funds rates (See: The Stock Market Logic, Norman Fosback, page16).
  
  The point still based upon the credibibily of those who direct the surveys, the way they are done , the methodoly used and finally if the outcome released correspond to the investigation real outcome. With this high volatility in the markets, I honestly I doubt that the recovery is underway.
  
  

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  19

  time111

  10/28/09 | Report as spam

  RE: Recession Over? Not With 21 Percent Unemployment.

  This is a nice, reality-based article and a stark reminder of
  how bad it could get.
  
  I am optimistic that it will not get as bad, but nobody knows
  for sure. One thing I know is that the stock market will keep
  fluctuating based on the unemployment statistics.
  
  But there is a way to profit from either direction the market
  goes: use timing signals to determine when to get in and
  when to get out.
  
  Consider http://invetrics.com
  
  Its DJIA index is up 62% for the year, and it is free of charge
  to individual investors.
  

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  20

  pm60657@...

  10/29/09 | Report as spam

  RE: Recession Over? Not With 21 Percent Unemployment.

  Thank God someone has finally written the truth in respect to unemployment numbers and how in reality they are much higher than what we are told. If you factor in the under-employed (those that have taken part-time jobs, but still cannot afford to pay their bills), the number would be much higher.
  
  I have been passing around the BLS link to so many people, so that they themselves can see that it's survey based on 60,000 households and and or 110,000 people.
  
  http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm
  
  If interested, I operate a website that provides information and resources for the unemployed and under-employed. The site is WWW.WERQIN.COM. It's free and hopefull will assist those that are looking for resources.

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  21

  DesireeP

  10/29/09 | Report as spam

  RE: Recession Over? Not With 21 Percent Unemployment.

  While bad news, thank you for the unemployment forecast. Hopefully this doom and gloom will teach us something valuable about spending (and saving) our money moving forward.
  
  

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  22

  Ilyce Glink

  10/29/09 | Report as spam

  RE: Recession Over? Not With 21 Percent Unemployment.

  @Fernando56:
  
  Your points are well made, but I don't think there's a chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates any time soon. The economy, despite today's 3.5 percent rise in the GDP, is too fragile.
  
  I do agree, however, that a Main Street recovery is not yet underway.
  
  Thanks for your comment.
  

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  23

  Ilyce Glink

  10/29/09 | Report as spam

  RE: Recession Over? Not With 21 Percent Unemployment.

  @time111
  
  With the Dow up 200 points today, we are above a 60 percent correction since the market bottomed out on March 9, 2009. My sense is that this kind of correction can't hold.
  
  Then again, my crystal ball is cracked.
  
  Thanks for your comment.

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  24

  Ilyce Glink

  10/29/09 | Report as spam

  RE: Recession Over? Not With 21 Percent Unemployment.

  @pm60657
  
  Thanks for sharing the link.
  
  Ilyce

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  25

  Ilyce Glink

  10/29/09 | Report as spam

  RE: Recession Over? Not With 21 Percent Unemployment.

  @DesireeP:
  
  The Great Depression had such an impact on how people felt about money (and subsequently treated it) that they gave it a name: Depression Mentality.
  
  I don't know what the long-term consequences will be of so many people watching their net worth evaporate, but I am confident that there will be a long-term effect, and we will probably see it more in our children and grandchildren.
  
  Thanks for your comment.