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Focusing on Best Stock Picks Doesn’t Mean Superior Returns

By Larry Swedroe | Aug 21, 2009 |

In his column on Tuesday, Wall Street Journal columnist Jonathan Burton stated: “The best stock funds often don’t own many stocks.” The question is: Do investors benefit from concentrating risks in a manager’s best ideas?

An often-heard excuse for the failure of actively managed funds to outperform benchmarks is that the typical fund is “overdiversified” — the manager’s best ideas are diluted. In response, the mutual fund industry came up with a “solution” called focused funds: funds that concentrate holdings in the manager’s best ideas. While most mutual funds hold well over 100 stocks, the typical focused fund will hold 40 or less.

If focused funds concentrate on a manager’s best stock picks, then shouldn’t they deliver superior results? A 2008 study, “Security Concentration and Active Fund Management: Do Focused Funds Offer Superior Performance?” examined more than 2,000 focused funds to see if they truly delivered additional returns. Here’s what the study found:

  • There was no evidence that focused funds outperform diversified funds. In fact, funds with more stocks significantly outperformed funds with fewer stocks once you account for other fund characteristics.
  • The stocks that focused funds bought underperformed the stocks they sold by 0.3 percent at the one-year horizon.
  • Focused funds have significantly higher volatility and tracking error compared to benchmarks.
  • Focused funds go out of business at a higher rate than diversified funds.

There are a few explanations for the underperformance of focused funds. For one, trading costs grow as a fund takes a larger ownership stake. When these costs are coupled with relatively high operating expense ratios, outperformance becomes difficult. For another, the market is efficient enough that after expenses it becomes difficult to exploit any pricing errors.

 
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  •  
    1

    MarkWolfinger

    08/24/09 | Report as spam

    RE: Focusing on Best Stock Picks Doesn't Mean Superior Returns

    It's amazing that fund managers who clearly operate in their own self interest, are not held to a fiduciary responsibility outperform, or cut fees.

    Why are they allowed to force shareholders to pay a penalty (fee) on top of bad performance?

  •  
    2

    larry swedroe

    08/25/09 | Report as spam

    RE: Focusing on Best Stock Picks Doesn't Mean Superior Returns

    Mark
    I suggest another line of thinking?

    Why do investors not vote with their wallets and leave managers that underperform? Why do investors not rely on the academic evidence that shows that active investing is the triumph of hope, hype and marketing over wisdom and experience? Why do investors ignore the SEC warning that past performance is not a predictor of future performance?

  •  
    3

    MarkWolfinger

    08/25/09 | Report as spam

    RE: Focusing on Best Stock Picks Doesn't Mean Superior Returns

    Because the information is hidden from most of them.

    Their brokers are not going to tell them. The fund managers remain silent. Thus, too many are under-educated or lazy.

    They assume that if they are 'sold' something, that they have made a good deal. And they stick with what they have. When the bear market hits, they finally realize how bad it is, but it's too late. And they still don't know what to do.

    I know my blog's purpose is education. i teach investors to use options for risk reduction. You teach investors other viable ideas. But, there are far more investors than readers of our books, blogs, or other educational material.

    Mark
    http://blog.mdwoptions.com/

  •  
    4

    larry swedroe

    08/25/09 | Report as spam

    RE: Focusing on Best Stock Picks Doesn't Mean Superior Returns

    Mark
    I agree, investors need to spend more time getting educated on what is arguably the third most important thing in their lives--after their family and their health.

    Unfortunately, most Americans seem more inclined to watch a reality TV show than to spend the time getting educated on the academic research on investing. And when they do read books they tend to buy books like How to Get Rich Quick, or the TEN BEST FUNDS TO BUY NOW, instead of books like mine or those of Bill Bernstein or John Bogle. Books that would teach them how markets work and how to have the best chance of achieving their financial golas.

  •  
    5

    jstevemiller

    08/31/09 | Report as spam

    RE: Focusing on Best Stock Picks Doesn't Mean Superior Returns

    I'm sure that the fans of focused funds would argue that, "sure, most of these funds under perform their benchmarks, but I've found the next Warren Buffett, who also made huge bets on a smaller number of companies." Then, he shows you his focused fund, which has indeed outperformed its benchmark dramatically for the past five years - the life of the fund.

    But, of course, out of 2,000+ focused funds, a good many of these, through sheer chance alone, should have outperformed their benchmarks over the past five years. How could you ever know if the exemplary performance was a result of superior picking or simply fortune smiling upon those few companies for those five years?

    J. Steve Miller
    Author of Enjoy Your Money! How to Make It, Save It, Invest It and Give It

    Enjoy Your Money! How to Make It, Save It, Invest It and Give It

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Larry Swedroe

Larry Swedroe is principal and director of research for The Buckingham Family of Financial Services. He has authored or co-authored seven books, including The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You'll Ever Need.

Larry Swedroe

Larry Swedroe is a principal and the director of research for Buckingham Asset Management and BAM Advisor Services. He has also worked with Prudential Home Mortgage and Citicorp, totaling nearly 40 years of managing financial risks for major corporations and advising individuals on ways to do the same.

His opinions and comments expressed on this site are his own and may not accurately reflect those of the firm.

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