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• A Second, Direct Stimulus May Be In The Works

  By John Keefe | Nov 13, 2009 | 2 comments

  The notion of a second stimulus package, with provisions to directly create the millions of jobs that have yet to spring from the first round, comes to us from the astute economist Calculated Risk, via his eponymous blog. CR is a retired senior executive, from a financial services company I believe, who posts a prodigious amount [...]

• U.S. Banks Are Still Shrinking Their Loan Books

  By John Keefe | Nov 12, 2009 | 1 comment

  The research staff Federal Reserve reaches out to bank senior loan officers every three months, to get a feel for the markets in lending to business, commercial real estate, home mortgages and credit cards. Like so many economic data points this year, the October 2009 survey tells us that while lending conditions are not really [...]

• The Fed's Comments Last Week, and the Market's Reaction Since

  By John Keefe | Nov 9, 2009 | 0 comments

  The Bernanke era of the Federal Reserve will be remembered by economists and investors for many reasons, but the most flattering is that the Bernanke regime avoids mumbo-jumbo in explaining what it’s up to. In its statement last week on the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Fed clearly stated — or at [...]

• Retail Sales Beat Last Year's Weak Turnout, But Are Still In a Slump

  By John Keefe | Nov 5, 2009 | 2 comments

  Each week, watchers of the retail industry release two different flash reports on the latest sales. The reports, out Thursday, show that late October showed the best numbers in over a year, but as we’ve seen in housing, car sales, manufacturing, and just about everywhere else, the credit crisis and subsequent recession have set the [...]

• India Prefers Gold Over Paper, As Developed Economies Pile On Debt

  By John Keefe | Nov 4, 2009 | 2 comments

  The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the country’s central bank, announced it bought 200 metric tons of gold, worth $6.7 billion, from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It’s a good-sized purchase in the world of gold, but in wealth terms not that big a deal, even for a so-called emerging country such as India. It’s [...]

• What's Behind That +3.5% GDP Headline

  By John Keefe | Nov 1, 2009 | 0 comments

  The U.S. stock market rose sharply on Thursday on a surprisingly strong GDP report - the first quarterly growth in more than a year. It's a start to a recovery, but production, employment and consumption are going to have to be more broadly based for the economy to get back on a decent trajectory.

• GDP Rises, But Other Indicators Point Down

  By Charles Wallace | Oct 29, 2009 | 1 comment

  The U.S. economy grew in the third quarter and people are already celebrating the end of the worst recession in 70 years. Is such jubilation justified? I think not. The Commerce Department report said GDP in the July to September period grew at an annual rate if 3.5 percent, ending four quarters of declines. But if you [...]

• Durable Goods Orders and Shipments Plod Along

  By John Keefe | Oct 28, 2009 | 0 comments

  Economists are putting the best face possible on today’s report of September 2009 durable goods orders and production, with a percent gain here and there. And yes, September makes five increases out of the last six months. But the drop in manufacturing in this downturn has been staggering, such that the U.S. economy has given [...]

• 3Q 2009 Earnings: When Are The Customers Coming Back?

  By John Keefe | Oct 26, 2009 | 1 comment

  After 2009’s second quarter, U.S. corporate earnings provided some pleasant surprises to the stock market. The better-than-expected profits generally were the result of cost cutting (giving us today’s high unemployment), but investors were not choosy about the source of the profit strength and took stocks higher. Commentators did emphasize at the time, however, that third [...]

• Leading Economic Indicators Show A Nice Recovery, But Are They Still Relevant?

  By John Keefe | Oct 23, 2009 | 0 comments

  The Conference Board released its monthly index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for the U.S. this week, making a string of six positive reports. The index rose by one point, to 103.5; four of this year’s monthly gains have been greater than one point, suggesting a strong recovery is in the making. But the ingredients [...]

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