Jill Schlesinger

The Financial Decoder

Weed-Whacker for Green Shoots: Why the Economy May Not Be Out of the Woods

By Jill Schlesinger | May 21, 2009 |

In 1987, my financial Yoda gave me excellent advice as I started my career as an options trader: “It’s great to develop an opinion about the markets and the economy, but to counter that position, find the smartest people you know who hold the opposite opinion and read/listen to what they have to say.”

Since this crisis started, I’ve thought that it was going to take a long time to get out of this mess. But it’s clear that the improvement in financial conditions and a bunch of less bad economic reports mean that I need to rethink my original thesis.

So far, the most compelling argument is that when the government throws trillions of dollars at a problem, there is bound to be a significant response in the markets and the economy. The fruits of the big spending spree are most easily seen in:

  • The easing of credit conditions to pre-Lehman levels (note the smart declines in LIBOR, LIBOR-OIS and TED);
  • A bounceback among consumers, who’ve come back a bit from their full retrenchment in spending;
  • Slowing losses in employment.

Even legendary investor Barton Biggs says that the economy likely bottomed in Q1.

Just call me a Weed Whacker for your green shoots, but I’m proceeding cautiously. Here’s why:

  1. Credit conditions are not even close to normal. Better is better, but in essence, this is like a doctor telling you that you don’t need a heart transplant, you “only” need a quadruple bypass.
  2. Housing is still a mess — we need to see more pain before moving forward on that front.
  3. Banks are way ahead of consumers on the deleveraging front. Despite the cheery talk that “the worst is over,” people will still be forced to save more to replenish depleted balance sheets.

Image by Flickr user DVS, CC 2.0

 
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    1

    WORLDWIDESHARES

    05/22/09 | Report as spam

    RE: Weed-Whacker for Green Shoots: Why the Economy May Not Be Out of the Woods

    INDIA + CHINA = A market of more than 2,4 billion people


    INDIA has its toughest decision ahead.
    A huge impact decision on future events that will determine the next hegemony period in the globe.

    The decision to take is very clear:

    INDIA..., Are you going to join CHINA in your future developments , ... or are you going to lean on US as your ally,... or in a third place, you are going to decide to continue to run the race to world?s most powerful country, independently ???

    A) Joining CHINA:

    INDIA+CHINA would be the end of US power, not only as the biggest economy on earth, but militarily, socially, and politically.
    USDollar would lose its status as the reference currency in worldwide markets, and a new ASIAN power would emerge.

    Tight collaboration between INDIA and CHINA is not an easy task. Obviously, the beginning would be in economic terms, that is, to become the world biggest "outsourcing" area.

    Second, and very obvious, the highest domestic market in terms of consumer rates, 2.4 billion people is a much bigger chunk than any other individual market in the world.

    Big international corporations would be interested in playing their strategies there, and obviously, the jobless claims in these 2 countries would fall to minimums, allowing a much better domestic consumer performance, and the erradication of poverty and transition from countryside to cities, with almost no public spending from these 2 governments, would be a fact.

    CHINA has made the first step in this idea, asking INDIA to share the prominent and lucrative OUTSOURCING market.

    INDIA is the OUTSOURCER by excellence. Good engineer schools, meaning an incredible added value to big decentralized foreign corporations, depending on INDIA as its main OUTSOURCING supplier.


    b) US as an ally:

    US cannot lose this train.
    USSR cold war is over, but a fiercest one is beginning. The battle to determine who is going to become the next most powerful nation during the next centuries.

    This is a democratic battle. A social, political and economic battle, in a now bipolar world.

    JAPAN will soon lose its position in the ranking, and CHINA, INDIA will be running behind US .

    US will have to use PAKISTAN matter to get closer to INDIA. But, I think this will not be enough. There must be more joining agreements in terms of manufacture, defense, IT, and infraestructure projects.

    US must use all its influence power to convince INDIA they must run this race together.



    c) INDIA running independently:

    INDIA has also the choice to continue developing its economy, serving either CHINA and US as main and preferred customers.
    It can become the referee of the "2 big" match.

    INDIA alone has 2,1 billion people. So, it is not a little market to feed. And it is not a little market either to focus on its domestic consumer rates future evolution.

    INDIA has shown the world why BOLLYWOOD produces now more films than US HOLLYWOOD STUDIOS, it has also shown us the incredible MUMBAI development in terms of financial and industrial power, the high class ENGINEER SCHOOLS, the steel industry, the technology-edged IT companies born in the last 5 years, etc...

    A good engineer work base, value added workers, and a political change in the horizon.

    Farewell to the old politicians, let?s welcome the "blackberries" !!!. Rahul Gandhi, is the best example of this new generation of politicians, that in 5-6 years, will be ready to lead.
    Till now, indian politicians have been well above 70 year old average, INDIA must change this issue to really launch itself into the race of the world hegemony.

    INDIA needs young politicians, with global ideas and perspectives, people with foreign studies that have lived and worked in other countries or cities, have shared other religions and bureaucracies...

    This is another big decision for INDIA. Maybe the critical one.

    Tough decisions ahead for ... That for sure, will determine who will be the next emerging power.




    Jose Luis Revilla Escudero
    Chairman & CEO
    WWShares, Inc
    -Global Wealth Management-
    www.worldwideshares.blogspot.com

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    2

    steveo@...

    05/22/09 | Report as spam

    Economic conditions

    Credit conditions may have already returned to normal.

    As the Fed Funds rate took a dump, investors sought higher returns in securitized loans, especially for idle cash. That market collapsed in 2008 and it may be some time before those investors come back as the Federal government themselves will offer good competition for those investment dollars.

    It's not encouraging that the Fed's prescription of plowing money into banks, who don't want or need it, in order to jumpstart lending is misguided. It is not a pull-back in bank lending that has reduced credit, it's the collapse of the securitized lending market, run by players who endure the slings and arrows of the new Administration.

    After seeing the Chrysler bondholders get rolled, these investors will be more careful, withholding lending in situations where that could happen again.

    Also, the massive spending spree won't just be financed with debt, and the expected increases in taxes will tend to depress future investment. I'm not even invested in equities right now, which may be a mistake. But I'm considering sending at least half of my own money overseas.

    I'm little persuaded by comparisons to historical dips and previous recessions. The US has never converted 1/4 of its economy to socialism before, nor increased deficit spending as furiously as it is now doing. And this is just a start. To pay for it all, the US is going to abandon being the Land of Opportunity, and will instead become just another Land of Entitlement.

    And this year, for the first time, as massive new entitlement programs are on the cusp of being implemented, a majority of voters won't pay ANY federal income taxes. What is the political game going to look like then?

    As politicians make promises to win election, our tax policy will resemble two wolves and a sheep voting on what to have for dinner.

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    3

    Jill Schlesinger

    05/22/09 | Report as spam

    RE: Weed-Whacker for Green Shoots: Why the Economy May Not Be Out of the Woods

    I think your point is proven in the absolute shredding of the dollar this week...just how does the government plan to extract itself from this cycle? I guess they'll "let us know".

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Jill Schlesinger

Jill Schlesinger is the Editor-at-Large for CBS MoneyWatch.com. Prior to the launch of MoneyWatch, she was the Chief Investment Officer for an independent investment advisory firm. In her infancy, she was an options trader on the Commodities Exchange of New York.

Jill Schlesinger

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